While a new report from the U.S. Department of Labor shows a slight decline in the nation’s unemployment rate from 10 percent to 9.7 percent, financial analyst Jason Schenker is warning that it’s too soon to applaud the lower unemployment rate.
“The truth is the unemployment rate fell because a number of people dropped off the unemployment roles,” said Schenker, president of Prestige Economics LLC in Austin.
In reality, a number of people have left the labor market altogether, which means they are no longer calculated into the nation’s unemployment rate. In addition, job losses were deeper in prior months, according to the latest revisions to the Labor Department data, Schenker said.
“This is not a good report,” Schenker said. “The unemployment rate is not going down because jobs are being created. This is what we call a jobless recovery.”
Schenker offered a glimmer of hope, indicating that the Texas market still is hovering below the nation’s unemployment rate. He credits the state’s ability to still create jobs as one of the reasons behind Texas’ performance.
In some instances, new unemployed arrivals to Texas have added to state and local unemployment rates, but that hasn’t remained constant. Texas’ unemployment rate currently stands at 8.3 percent.
“I’m not worried about people moving here,” Schenker said. “They move here for jobs … because they are getting one. People are less likely to move to Texas on a hope and a prayer that they will get a job.”
Leave a reply